At first glance, SAGA seems like a game with great internal balance, but the core mechanics of the game pose an immediate and tricky list-building question:
Is there a reason to take hearthguard?
This isn't a new question for SAGA; I saw it frequently trawling old forum posts. However, I'll still elaborate a bit here:
One point of warriors gives you 8 attack dice in melee, and 4 at range, just like one point of hearthguard. However, one point of warriors is more durable than one point of hearthguard. On average, it will take 24 attack dice to wipe out one point of warriors in melee, while it will only take 18 attack dice to wipe out a point of hearthguard.* At range, the math doesn't change. A point of warriors can soak up 32 shots, while 24 will wipe out the point of hearthguard. Warriors are 33% more durable per point, and have the same offensive output compared with hearthguard.
The durability gap only increases as armor gets lower (say, by equipping your unit with javelins, horses, or heavy weapons). Furthermore, there isn't a huge gap in terms of how easy it is to activate warriors and hearthguard. Both can be activated with common SAGA dice, and usually, that's the die type you'll want to spend on basic activations.
This isn't to say that hearthguard are never worth it, rather that your other options and abilities must justify them. They might have equipment options warriors don't (Anglo-Saxon hearthguard can take horses, for example). They might also be justified by certain SAGA abilities. Some abilities can only affect hearthguard, while others give better results to powerful units which roll a lot of dice, like multi-point units of hearthguard. Finally, there's the war banner, which you can only take one of, and which also gives you more on a powerful unit than a weaker one.
There's also the Bodyguards rule on warlords and some other heroes, which lets you remove hearthguard save them, but not warriors. If your army composition or battle board encourages you to get heavy work out of your warlord, it might be a good idea to take some bodyguards for them. And that's not even getting into positioning, tactics, cover, etc.
A brief aside: there isn't a similar debate about warriors vs. levy. Levy with no equipment have a slight statistical advantage over warriors because they lose attack dice more slowly and have more bodies per point. Levy with ranged weapons do a lot more damage at range than similarly equipped warriors, but are significantly worse in melee. But, and this is a big but, levy cannot be activated with common SAGA dice.
So, as I delve into army composition and tactics for the various factions I'm interested in, I'll try to keep this question in mind. Some factions will want hearthguard, while others will have no use for them. Thematically, I like the idea of taking hearthguard a lot, so I'll definitely try everything I can to see if they're worthwhile.
*If you're not familiar with probability, I got this number by multiplying the chance of an attack die to hit by the chance of that hit not being cancelled. Against armor 4 warriors, an attack die will hit on a 4, 5, or 6, which is half the time. In melee, the hit is cancelled on a 5 or 6 (a third of the time), and inflicts a casualty the remaining 2/3 of the time. You can multiply those probabilities together to get the overall probability that an attack die will inflict a casualty: 1/3. So on average, for every 3 attack dice you roll in melee, you'll kill 1 warrior, and you need 24 to wipe out the 8 your opponent can buy for a point.
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